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Overview If current trends continue, the demographic profile of the United States will change dramatically by the middle of this century, according to new population projections developed by the Pew Research Center. Figure 1 Of the million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves, 47 million will be their children and 3 million will be their grandchildren.
Immigration is projected to be the key driver of national population growth in the coming half century, but it is important to note that possible future changes in immigration policy or other events could substantially alter the projected totals.
These projections are based on trends over the past half century, during which immigration, both authorized and unauthorized, has played an escalating role in U. From to , new immigrants and their U. The contribution of new immigration to population change was derived by comparing our main projection with an alternative projection that assumes no new immigrants arrive after The heightening role of immigration contrasts with a decrease in fertility in recent decades.
The average number of births per woman has declined markedly since the late s, from more than 3. Also, a smaller proportion of women are of childbearing age now, compared with earlier decades. These two changes have made immigration a more prominent factor in population growth. All population projections have built in uncertainties, especially for years further in the future, because they are based on assumptions about future behavior.
In addition, these uncertainties can multiply because key aspects of population change are often interrelated—for example, a decline in immigration could also lead to a decline in the birthrate because immigrants tend to have larger families than do native born residents. The Center has developed three different population projections for , but the body of this report presents findings from the main projection figures from projections based on lower or higher immigration levels are set forth in a section that starts on page These projections consolidate and build upon past trends, present conditions, and factors affecting future behavior.
None of the projections should be treated as predictions. Even given these caveats, however, population projections are an important analytical tool for planners.
Demographic change has major implications for government spending in key areas such as schools, health programs, community services, infrastructure and Social Security. Projections also provide business with a basis upon which to make judgments about future markets. And they are of increasing interest because of the role that population may play in climate change and other environmental concerns. The models and assumptions are disaggregated by race and by Hispanic origin, as are many projection models e.
When incorporating birth estimates into the projections, the Center has assumed that the overall fertility rate will remain near the level it has been for the past three decades, with differing rates by race and ethnicity Appendix, Figure A2. Birthrates are assumed to be well above average for immigrants, slightly above average overall for the second generation U. Census Bureau, ; Social Security Administration, As for death rates, life expectancy is assumed to improve somewhat for all groups throughout the period covered by these projections.
Immigration to the United States has risen rapidly and steadily for decades as a result of increasing globalization and population movements, changes in U. Not only have the numbers of new U.
In the face of these strong and persistent trends, most U. As a result, official projections over the last several decades have consistently underestimated actual population growth.
The Pew Research Center projections have assumed that the annual immigration level, now about 1. Figure 3 This rate of growth is in line with, but somewhat slower than, the growth trends of the last several decades. These immigration levels are slightly higher than those projected by either the Census Bureau or the Social Security Trustees in the short run and substantially higher toward the end of the projection horizon.
The rate is slightly below the rate for the first half of this decade and equal to the average for the last 35 years. Figure 4 The decades-long pattern of steady increases has been interrupted recently by year-to-year variation, including a spike in , a sharp decline in Passel and Suro, , followed by a return to the long-term average in the last several years.
The relatively steady growth of the last 70 years contrasts with substantial fluctuations that occurred in the 19th and early 20th centuries. The projections also assume that several hundred thousand foreign-born residents will leave each year, which is in keeping with trends of the past several decades.
The issue of illegal immigration has become highly contentious in recent years. Last summer, Congress tried but failed to pass a comprehensive reform bill, and the debate over how to change immigration policies has become a major topic of the current presidential campaign.
It is possible that a future Congress will enact laws that would sharply cut immigration flows. This has happened before. The Immigration Act of along with an economic depression and a world war drastically reduced immigrants as a share of the U. This report offers two alternative population projections in addition to its main projection.
The projected annual growth rate of 0. That means the costs per worker to support the young and elderly would go up. Under a lower-immigration scenario, the ratio would rise even higher, to 75 dependents per people of working age. Under a higher-immigration scenario, it would be 69 dependents per working-age people. The projected annual growth rate for the United States will continue to exceed that in most other developed nations, which are growing at a slower pace, if at all.
European countries generally are growing at no more than 0.
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As is true in the United States, the immigrant populations in many other developed nations have been growing rapidly in recent decades. The United States has a larger foreign-born population than any other country, but U.
Although immigrants are a larger share of the U.
This report begins by presenting the baseline projection for the total population from to The next sections go into detail about the projected estimates for key segments of the population, including the foreign born, Hispanics, blacks, Asians, non-Hispanic whites, working-age adults, children and the elderly. This report then examines how these changes will affect the size of the potential workforce relative to the number of elderly and young people.
A final section presents the results of two alternative projections. This overview concludes with a summary of major projections. These projections assume that definitions of race and ethnic categories will remain fixed and that self-identification does not change over time.
U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050 | Pew Research Center
Immigrants who arrive after , and their U. Of the additional people attributable to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U. The historic peak share was Births in the United States will play a growing role in Hispanic and Asian population growth, so a diminishing proportion of both groups will be foreign-born. Racial and Ethnic Groups The Hispanic population, 42 million in , will rise to million in , tripling in size.
The Asian population, 14 million in , will grow to 41 million in , nearly tripling in size. Age Groups The working-age population—adults ages 18 to 64—will reach million in , up from million in Future immigrants and their descendants will account for all growth in this group. Future immigrants and their descendants will account for all growth in this population segment. Figure 7 Immigration will account for only a small part of that growth. The dependency ratio—the number of people of working age, compared with the number of young and elderly—will rise sharply, mainly because of growth in the elderly population.
There were 59 children and elderly people per adults of working age in That will rise to 72 dependents per adults of working age in Under a lower- or higher-immigration scenario, the dependency ratio would range from 75 dependents per people of working age to 69 dependents per people of working age. Both of these ratios are well above the current value of 59 dependents per people of working age.
This report uses the following definitions of the first, second and third-and-higher generations: The projections are based on a starting point of , and build up to in five-year increments, so do not include totals for individual years.